The global economic storm makes the threat of kidnap for ransom much more likely over the next 20 years. Kidnap and ransom insurance is becoming a staple for any American living abroad for reasons we discuss below.
We have all heard the horror stories about Daniel Pearl in Pakistan, Nick Berg in Iraq, and other victims kidnapped abroad and violently murdered – because either the demands could not be met, or the demands were unreasonable in the first place. This was the case with the two victims above, both Americans beheaded on video tape! Fortunately, these types of kidnappings are still very rare in the world.
Kidnapping Continues to Grow Worldwide
The “business” of kidnapping is growing at a shocking pace; the trade of live bodies for ransom money is only expected to get worse over the next twenty years. The party in the “rich nations” is over for quite some time.
Record deficit spending and over-inflated “bubbles” in housing, stocks, and commodities will mean that rich nations can no longer keep up the spending and will need to de-lever over the next 10 to 15 years.
At the very best, this means economic doldrums for the U.S., all of Europe, Japan, and even China for at least 10 years. If sovereign deficits are not addressed immediately, we would see global collapse and “depression like” levels of negative economic growth.
With the rich countries putting their wallets away for up to a decade as the storm blows over, this will have a trickle down effect on the developing world and the poor will get even poorer and more desperate in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Somali pirates will grow in number. The badlands of Rio will expand in every direction. The population of shantytowns in Mexico City will have increase by 250,000 people a year.
Many will Choose Kidnap and Ransom Insurance
Desperate people means that kidnap and ransom insurance for all American expatriates and travelers will become an essential benefit for the near future. A larger population of poor and increased desperation will feed the business and infrastructure of the global kidnap for ransom business. Unlike most in the global economy, the “kidnap business” will be a growth industry for the next 10 years. (Wall Street must be envious they cannot participate in one of the few growth sectors of the next decade!)
We predict the growth in “Hollywood style” kidnappings, where the kidnappers make incredible demands of $1,000,000 or more will certainly not be the norm. Instead, we expect that the poor in the developing world will see the presence of Westerners as a meal ticket, a way to escape destitution, or to find enough money to treat a sick child at home sleeping in a box. Kidnap and ransom insurance plans will pay out smaller amounts much more frequently.
The burdens on kidnap and ransom insurance will not be on the insurance benefit. Thousands of these international kidnapping will only ask for $20,000 to $50,000 as the initial ransom, and most will be negotiated down by 50%! It will be the consulting aspect of a good kidnap and ransom insurance program that will save lives.
If an expatriate kidnapping occurs and the kidnappers only request $15,000 USD from the family, does that mean the family can “relax” because they have $100,000 in the bank and can easily write a check to get safe return of the head of household? If people would stop to think through this scenario, they would not like what they find.
K&R Insurance Ensures Professional Assistance
Driving out to see armed killers and kidnappers at 2 a.m. with $20,000 of cash in the car and of course, no police or the kidnappers have threatened to kill the hostage. What would stop them from taking you as a second kidnap victim and starting the process all over again?
No, the right consulting company that can successfully and professionally negotiate with international kidnappers and then secure safe release of the hostage is the most important part of a good kidnap and ransom insurance policy. The actual benefit of a kidnap for ransom insurance policy is only 4th or fifth in importance for 95% of international kidnappings that will occur in the next decade.